Betting markets have defeated experts, polls and the media in predicting the outcome of current events such as presidential elections.
During the past four U.S. presidential campaigns, economists at the University of Iowa have operated an Internet-based futures market system, where anybody could bet on one of the two major-party candidates.
In the 2004 election, for example, every source in the U.S. considered the race too closes to call before the election night. But the University of Iowa market gave George W. Bush a clear edge since the end of the Republican convention in September, two months ahead.












